Finding and exploiting overlay is one of the easiest ways for any DFS player – new or old – to improve their chances of cashing and grabbing and a big score. Overlay exists in Guaranteed Prize Pool tournaments only, when the number of buy-ins entered is not enough to cover the prize pool the site guaranteed. The overlay is the amount of their own money the site must kick-in to make up the difference. Anytime there’s overlay that means a higher percentage of the field will cash, there’s essentially free money up for grabs and it may become a lot easier to move up to higher ranking prizes – depending on how great the overlay is.
We also wanted to look a general look at what FanDuel and DraftKings were guaranteeing during the NBA at this point of the season on your average mid-week day with a number of games going. For this edition we took a look at the largest guaranteed tournaments on 12/2 and 12/3. There were 10 games on each day.
Let’s take a look at the results, first from 12/2:
$2 – NBA $50K Layup – 26,674 (actual entries) out of 28,750 (entries required to hit guarantee) – Overlay = $3,610.44
$5 – NBA $25K Zone – 5,549/5,750 – Overlay = $873.92
$12 – NBA $40K Pick and Roll – 3,514/3,800 – Overlay = $3,010.53
$27 – NBA $100K Crossover – 4,043/4,200 – Overlay = $3,738.10
$200 – NBA $75K Showtime –376/416 – Overlay = $7,211.54
$2 – NBA $50K Layup – 27,558/28,750 – Overlay = $2,073
$5 – NBA $25K Zone – 5,750/5,750 – No Overlay
$12 – NBA $40K Pick and Roll – 3,707/3,800 – Overlay = 978.95
$27 – NBA $100K Crossover – 4,200/4,200 – No Overlay
$200 – NBA $50K Showtime –278/278 – No Overlay
$1 – $50K Tue NBA Swat –57,469/57,471. Overlay = $1.74
$2 – $100K Tue NBA Shot – 57,470/57,471 – Overlay = $1.74
$5 – $35K Tue NBA Layup – 8,045/8,045 – No Overlay
$25 – $200K Tue NBA Slam – 9,195/9,195 – No Overlay
$200 – $100K Tue NBA Monster – 555/555 – No Overlay
$1 – $50K Weds NBA Swat –57,461/57,471 – Overlay = $8.70
$2 – $100K Weds NBA Shot – 57,541/57,471 – No Overlay
$5 – $30K Weds NBA Layup – 6,896/6,896 – No Overlay
$25 – $300K Weds NBA Super Slam – 13,772/13,793 – Overlay = $456.75
$200 – $85K Weds NBA Monster – 472/472 – No Overlay
One thing we can takeaway from this is you can’t win it all. FanDuel, which had significantly higher guarantees and therefore larger prize pools managed to fill almost every single one of their contests to the max and there was absolutely no overlay. DraftKings on the other hand had smaller guarantees but also had decent overlay in some tournaments. At this point in the season it may be all about what you value more – larger prize pools or larger overlay.
One other observation we can make on DraftKings is the decreased overlay on Wednesday compared to Tuesday. Wednesday has traditionally been the night when both sites offer their largest regular guaranteed tournaments. If it’s overlay you’re after, you may want to look outside of Wednesday when less players are focused on the NBA and aren’t drawn in by the slightly larger prize pools.
We know finding overlay and knowing the guarantees is a great way to find places where you can make money in DFS, so we want to make this a regular feature not only for the NBA, but other sports as well. This weekend we’ll take a look at some of the larger tournaments on Sunday during NFL Week 14 and share the results with you.
If there’s another sport or tournament you want us to take a look at, or any other overlay data you’d like to see, let us know in the comments.